Bankroll Management for Horse Racing or Football Betting

Bankroll Management is a key factor in winning at gambling. It’s even more important than picking winners or horses at the right prices. It’s the ability to stake the right amount on any outcome that is “the difference that makes the distinction.”

You may have seen or gleaned from our article on Value Betting that the odds of an event occurring and the odds offered by your bookmaker must be in a good relationship before you are allowed to place a wager. One great example is a bookmaker offering you 2/1 on the tossing of a coin. This is a far better return than the 50/50 true odds of evens. You are statistically more likely to receive 5 heads and 5 tails if you accept the bet 10 times. You could lose PS50 if heads come up, but get back PS150 if tails comes up. This would give you a nice profit of PS50.

There is a huge difference between what should happen statistically, and what actually happens. It is possible that any ten of the coin tosses will result in heads, and you’ll lose PS100. This is a terrible result, especially if you are statistically ahead. What went wrong? Simply put, statistically things work over the long-term. This example would be 1000 coin tosses. It is much more likely that you will get 500 tails and 500 heads. How can bankroll management help? Simply put, bankroll management means that you manage your money so you don’t go broke.

First, you need a bankroll. This is a bankroll that you have set aside for gambling. You are not allowed to take out the odd PS20. Your daily cash is not allowed to touch the bankroll. It must be ring-fenced. You can make it as large or small as you want, but it should not be sufficient to impact your daily life.

Once you’ve established your bankroll, it’s time for you to decide how much you want to take on each bet.

This is not an easy question to answer. We have two options.

Although it may take some getting used to, we believe that the first is the best. Dependant on your feelings about the bet, you will bet anywhere from 1% to 4% of your bankroll. This means that you will be placing bets between PS1 to PS4 if your bankroll is PS100. Sounds exciting huh? It’s not, but it is smart and will help you prosper. This is why this strategy works so well. If you bet 2% per bet, then you’d have to lose 50 consecutive bets in order to go broke. We would recommend that you avoid this game if this happens. It can also increase your bankroll because it only takes a percentage. How much money would you have if you had 100 bets and started with PS100? If you win every bet at 3-1, you would win PS6 profit and a total of PS600. That’s a pretty good bankroll! However, if you staked 2% and won 100 bets at 3-1, you would have a balance PS2,035.81. That’s even better!

You can also win the opposite way. If you lose, you would be betting a percentage of your bank balance instead of a fixed amount. If you bet PS2 every time, you’d be broke after 50 bets. However, if you bet 2% every time, you’d be in the black.

This is a solution we strongly recommend.

Kelly formula is second choice and one that professional gamblers love. This is the percentage of odds that a particular outcome will occur compared with the available odds. The basic Kelly formula is:

Bankroll percentage = ((odds offered x probability) – (1-probability))/odds offered.

If you were given 6/4 odds that Bolton would beat Manchester United, and you believed the probability to be 50/50, then this formula would look like:

Bankroll percentage = (2.5 x.50-(1-.50),)/2.5

This results in a bankroll percentage 30%

We find two major problems in the Kelly formula despite all the testimonials. The first is that the probability of a certain outcome is determined by the bettors prediction. Second, we believe 30% is too high to place a single bet. To reduce the risk and give the Kelly a smaller percentage, many bettors divide the final percentage by 25%. The Kelly formula is available in a bankroll solution, which will be discussed in more articles.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.